All policies have negative consequences. The hope is that positive consequences will outweigh those that are negative. For example, in the late 1990s Pres. Clinton placed recruitment restrictions on the CIA that caused its staff to shrink by half. Clinton also cut CIA and military funding substantially. The 9/11 terrorist attacks followed. Bill Clinton also… Continue reading January 2020 Stock and Fund Picks
December Stock and Fund Picks
Isolationism and increasing inefficiency that results will continue to push output down. Already it has reduced investment, which in turn reduces productivity growth, as well as both exports and imports which account for about 40 – 45% of our economy. Let me illustrate how this works. Two nearby islands routinely trade with each other because… Continue reading December Stock and Fund Picks
November Stock and Fund Picks
Beware the unemployment rate. It went down during the Obama administration because people dropped out of the labor force, not because job growth was strong. To illustrate, assume 100 people are in the labor force (working or looking for work and unemployed, non-institutionalized, and greater than 16 years of age). Assume 5 people are unemployed… Continue reading November Stock and Fund Picks
October Stock and Fund Picks
The last quarter appears to hinge on whether economist’s negative expectations of an economy that has slowed from 3% to 2% growth because of tariff policies will continue to slow and then fall into a recession. For the previous 2 quarters negative earnings estimates have been below actual results. That this quarters earnings will continue… Continue reading October Stock and Fund Picks
September Stock and Fund Picks
The new dovish Fed posture requires some adjustment among income funds in my suggested portfolio of monthly paying stocks and funds (the last one is from the August post). REITS and bond funs with longer duration tend to outperform when short rates are lowered. Floating rate funds, on the other hand, have performed worse. Also,… Continue reading September Stock and Fund Picks
August Stock and Fund Picks
Week 1 -2 (Aug. 1 – 15): There are changes to my personal portfolio from July. Specifically, I’m dropping EPR and CCMNX and adding PHD and BSL. These changes are now reflected in the updated portfolio. Most stock analysts are weak at Open Economy Macroeconomics and tend to look only at the initial static effect… Continue reading August Stock and Fund Picks
July Stock and Fund Picks
Week 1 (July 1 – 5): As opposed to just kicking the can down the road and giving the Chinese spy company Huawei a life-line, the bullish bias in the market has interpreted the trade truce with China as an actual trade deal . As you know, I’m not in favor of doing any business… Continue reading July Stock and Fund Picks
June 2019 Stock and Fund Picks
Week 1 (June 3 – 7): Tariffs on Mexico that would go in effect on June 12 will be bad for Mexico, US companies staying competitive by operating in Mexico and the stock market, dovish Fed or not. Estimates of the cost of tariffs on consumers is now twice as much as the benefit from… Continue reading June 2019 Stock and Fund Picks
May Stock and Fund Picks
Week 1 – 2 (May 1 – 10): Trump trade woe’s continue. When companies buy high bang-per-buck (Productivity divided by cost) resources in foreign countries like Mexico, such as with our automobile industry, it maximizes output per cost or, equivalently, minimizes cost per unit of output. In other words, our automobile industry becomes more competitive… Continue reading May Stock and Fund Picks
April Stock and Fund Picks
Week 1 April is starting off well. Still have doubts about Trump’s trade policies, especially towards Mexico. The China problem centers around forced technology transfer, or simply technology theft by a communist government. We should never have let any of that happen. But Mexico is simply a producer with higher bang- per- buck labor resources. … Continue reading April Stock and Fund Picks